Dec. 15, 2022: According to a new poll, seventy-two percent of Palestinians support creating additional armed groups in the West Bank akin to the Lion’s Den that operates against Israel. The survey, conducted by prominent Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki and his Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR), was released on December 13, 2022, as the West Bank wraps up one of its most deadly years since the Second Intifada of 2000-2005.
Backing for a two-state solution falls to just 32%, with 69% no longer believing it’s possible due to settlement expansion; the majority says the next Israeli government will annex West Bank.
A clear majority of respondents told PCPSR that they support the formation of armed groups that don’t take orders from the PA and that are not part of the PA security forces. Still, numbers were higher in Gaza, where 84% of respondents backed the concept than in the West Bank, where 65% supported the idea. Nevertheless, 59% of respondents said they feared that establishing such groups could spark clashes with PA security forces, and 22% of respondents said they opposed the formation of such armed groups altogether.
Do Palestinians support Arms Groups surrendering to Palestinian Authority?
Seventy-nine percent of respondents said they opposed members of armed groups surrendering to the Palestenian Authority (PA), and 87% said the PA has no right to make such arrests.
A majority, 59%, said they expected such armed groups to expand to other areas in the West Bank, with only 15% saying that they think Israel will succeed in arresting or killing their members. Fourteen percent said they believe the PA will succeed in containing them.
New Israeli Nethanyahu Government:
Sixty-one percent of respondents said they expected the next Benjamin Netanyahu government to be more extreme than the outgoing one, while 30% expected its policies to be similar.
Fifty-eight percent said they expected the next government to change the status quo at the Temple Mount by allowing Jews to pray at the holy site. Both Jews and Muslims are currently allowed to visit, but only Muslims are allowed to pray openly. A majority of 64% of respondents expect the next government to evict Palestinian families from the flashpoint East Jerusalem neighbourhood of Sheikh Jarrah, and 69% of respondents said they expected the next government to annex Israeli settlements in the West Bank or the Jordan Valley.
Two State Solution:
Support for a two-state solution fell to just 32% among the Palestinian respondents, five percentage points lower than three months ago. A decade ago, that figure was above 50%. A similar trend has been taking place in Israel, though support for the concept has always been higher there than in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Sixty-nine percent of respondents said a two-state solution is no longer feasible due to Israeli settlement expansion. Three months ago, that number was also five percentage points lower.
How to break the current deadlock:
When asked which policies they would back to break the current deadlock in the peace process, 59% supported the PA joining more international organizations, 55% supported returning to armed resistance against Israel, 51% supported resorting to non-violent resistance, 48% supported dissolving the PA, and 27% supported abandoning the two-state solution and embracing a one-state solution for Palestinians and Israelis. Three months ago, 48% supported a return to violent resistance against Israel.
Other Highlights of the Surveys:
• A majority of 55% support the return to an armed intifada
• A majority of 51% believe armed action is the most effective means of ending the Israeli occupation
• 72% are pessimistic about the prospects for reconciliation
• 67% are less optimistic today about the prospects for an improvement in Palestinian-Israeli relations
• 64% believe that a Palestinian actor played a role in the death of Yasser Arafat, either alone (14%) or in cooperation with Israel (50%)
• In a competition between president Abbas and Hamas’ Ismael Haniyyeh, the latter wins by 54% and the former receives 36%; but Marwan Barghouti, from Fatah, defeats Haniyyeh 61% to 34%
• In parliamentary elections, Fatah and Hamas receive equal percentage of popular vote, 34% each
• Satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas stands at 23%; and 75% demand his resignation
• 58% expect the new Israeli government to change the status quo at al-Haram al-Sharif; 64% expect it to expel Palestinian families in al-Sheikh Jarrah; 68% expect it to transfer the Arab al Jahalin community, and 69% expect it to annex Israeli settlements or the Jordan Valley
• 39% say the most vital goal of the Palestinians should be the ending of Israeli occupation
• 38% say the Israeli occupation is the most pressing problem confronting Palestinians today
